Thursday, 27 August 2015

Would you like to guess?

Currently the world is changing, and with change comes fear. People are naturally afraid of the new and unknown, and so they should be, change can be good, but it can also be equally as bad. And so what would be the most natural response? Quell this fear with knowledge, predictions, or better yet, complete foresight! Unfortunately in most situations, humans are not extremely good at predicting the future. Economic models are perfect examples of how imperfect our predictions can be. And so when the world needs it most, our faith in predictions becomes eroded. We don’t see them as valuable anymore.




If he’s prepared for the zombie, vampire, werewolf, anything apocalypse, we can at least prepare for climate model predictions. Image courtesy 9GAG.com


This problem is extremely apparent when it comes to climate change or more importantly, climate predictions and climate modeling. In the next 50 years it is imperative that we prepare, because if we do not, the changes in our environment could cause us to lose food, water, homes; precious resources. With the pillar stones of our society damaged, our entire world could crumble into hunger-induced rebellion, and full-scale war. Thankfully we have tools at our disposal, tools which allow us to see a range of outcomes and prepare for the worst. Whether or not Australia embraces climate models and uses their predictions to harden ourselves against a range of outcomes, will likely determine whether or not Australia exists in this new world. This eroded faith needs to be reformed in policy makers and the general public. Those among us who understand the value in climate models must educate the skeptics and remove the deniers from power, so that climate modeling can hopefully, one day, lead Australia on a smooth transition into a world strongly affected by climate change.


Here is a small video hoping to raise awareness about the importance of climate models in the future of Australian policy making:








References:
Frame Pool 2008, Stock Video # 396-375-211, An animal cemetery of walrus bones, online image, viewed 28 August 2015, http://footage.framepool.com/shotimg/qf/396375211-animal-cemetery-mass-grave-walrus-animal-skull.jpg
The Telegraph 2015, Flood Philippines 2647456k, A flooded city street in the Philippines, online image, viewed 28 August 2015, http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02647/flood-philippines-_2647456k.jpg
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http://tornado-facts.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/lighting-and-tornado-storm.jpg
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https://westmountwire2014.wordpress.com/2014/10/31/global-warming-is-causing-polar-bears-to-shrink-in-arctic-canada/
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http://www.beautifulworld.com/images/africa/namib-desert/small/namib-desert.jpg
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http://bushfirefront.com.au/1a/pic/2010/03/vic23.jpg
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http://solarviews.com/raw/earth/bluemarblewest.jpg
Prydain Wiki 2014, Llawgadarn mountains, A scenic image of a lake surrounded by mountains, online image, viewed August 28 2015,http://prydain.wikia.com/wiki/Llawgadarn_Mountains